The unit of work in software just changed from instructions to tokens. If you’re still thinking about AI as a productivity tool for developers, you’re missing what’s actually happening: computing itself has changed form, and the second-order effects are already reshaping careers, org charts, and entire markets.
This isn’t about whether AI will replace developers. The developer role is splitting into three distinct tracks, and the middle of the old distribution is the most exposed. Enterprises are reorganizing around intelligence throughput instead of headcount. Startups now compete on distribution instead of compute. And the solopreneur suddenly has access to a factory.
Here’s what’s inside:
Token management is the new core competency. What happens when companies get it wrong — and what it looks like when they get it right.
The three developer tracks. Orchestrators, systems builders, and domain translators — and which one matches your strengths.
The 3x-5x revenue-per-employee gap. How enterprises are restructuring around intelligence instead of headcount.
Vertical AI is eating markets that were “too small.” Why companies are raising hundreds of millions to serve niches.
The economic case for going independent. What changes when you combine domain expertise with AI fluency.
Positioning for the commodity era. How to find your edge when intelligence itself is no longer one.
Let me walk you through how each of these is playing out — and what it means for where you sit.
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