Right now, you're drowning in AI predictions. Every day brings another breathless announcement about how AI will revolutionize everything. Most of us tune it out. Heck, I tune it out too. And roll my eyes.
How do you separate what's actually happening from pure hype?
Well around here I like to be up front about what I’m getting right and what I’m missing. That's where this honest scorecard comes in. Eight months ago, I put my credibility on the line with 17 specific predictions about 2025. Not vague hand-waving about "AI transformation," but concrete predictions. Stuff that’s falsifiable. I wanted to hold myself accountable.
The clock hasn’t run out on 2025, but I thought it was time for a little checkup. What hit already, what partially landed, and what completely flopped? Yes, even though there’s time on the clock I think we can say a few of these are probably flops lol
Here's what you'll learn from my successes and failures:
First, you'll get a reality filter for AI hype. When I tell you AI companions are already a $120 million market but smart mirrors are going nowhere, you can adjust your own strategies accordingly. These aren't theoretical musings—this is what's actually happening in August 2025.
Second, you'll understand the "jaggedness" of AI adoption. One of my biggest insights is that AI transformation isn't uniform—it's happening in dramatic pockets while other areas remain untouched. Knowing which is which could save you from betting on the wrong trend.
Third, you'll learn to spot patterns that matter. My misses are arguably more valuable than my hits. I completely missed that 2025 would be the year of AI coding, that people would form emotional attachments to specific LLM versions, and that open-source models would explode. If I—someone obsessively tracking this space—missed these, you might be missing them too.
The stakes? We're in the middle of the fastest technological transformation in history. We need to learn pattern matching, how to see actual trends, how to keep ourselves honest. I’m trying to model it here.
So let me show you what I got right, what I got sorta ok right, and what I just got wrong. And let’s learn together how to think more accurately about the future along the way…
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